The Precipice

A brilliant and urgently necessary work that I would recommend to anyone, especially anyone outside of the field of existential risk. The title word “Precipice” refers to the period of time humanity now finds itself in — a period of which there is a strong argument (that I believe) is the most consequential in human history, from the vantage point of decisions that will affect the future of our species.
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This is finally a book, and an author, that has the self-confidence to address the issue of exponential risk — the study of risks that could terminate humanity itself — and do so with real numbers behind it. Ord of course tempers these projections with the necessary qualifiers, but I deeply respect him for forging ahead and not writing an equivocating academic text that dances around core issues. He covers nuclear risks, engineered and anthropomorphic pandemics (especially timely today), misaligned artificial intelligence, climate change and the inherent risks with some forms of geo-engineering, and much more.

Most importantly, though, he eloquently covers the statistical errors many make, both with underestimating or misunderstanding the difference between a 1 in 100 risk versus a 1 in 1 million risk (for example), and the vast underinvestment in projects that save future lives rather than current lives. My only slight with this book is that it is not longer, doesn’t cover more topics, and spends a good deal of time simply convincing the reading that existential risks exist and should be attended to, rather than on the solutions. These are less a testament to Ord’s authorial weakness and more to the state of the world and its lack of focus on existential risk, of course.

I’m obviously biased in that this topic is very aligned with Helena, and therefore something I have quite a lot of interest in. But I can’t wait for this field of writing to break more into the mainstream, and wish there to be many more books like Ord’s that hit the shelves in the future and can get attention.